Syria risks more isolation over Lebanon

by **Admin** Wed Apr 02, 2008 11:22 am

Syria faces more isolation unless it helps resolve Lebanon's political crisis blamed on Damascus by Arab and Western states despite its conciliatory stance at the Arab summit it hosted last week.

Diplomats and commentators said Syria's diplomatic offensive will do little to rescue it from dire political and economic straits set to worsen unless Damascus pushes its Lebanese allies to abandon their quest for greater power in Beirut.

"Tough times are ahead for Syria," Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist at the University of Oklahoma, told Reuters.
"Syria thinks it can persevere another year and then it will be a new day. But the U.S. Treasury is laying landmines that Syria will find it difficult to negotiate," he added.

The March 29-30 meeting in Damascus, which was boycotted by Beirut's Western-backed government and skipped by three key Arab leaders -- Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, made no progress towards ending the crisis which has poisoned Arab ties.

The conflict in Lebanon pits the Beirut government close to Saudi Arabia and the United States against an opposition dominated by the Shi'ite Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran.

The government has been paralysed by the crisis and Lebanon has been without a president since November 2007. The main point of dispute is the opposition demand for effective veto power in cabinet. The ruling coalition has rejected the demand.

Syria pledged at the summit to cooperate on ending the crisis but made it clear that it will not push its allies in Lebanon to allow the election of a new president unless their demands are met.

Landis said Syria could find it tougher to play for time as Washington already expanded sanctions on Damascus and Arab states siding with Lebanon's government showed no willingness to welcome Syria back to what they regard as the Arab mainstream.

Syrian officials admit privately they are in a hunkering-down mood. They expect no imminent solution in Lebanon and more U.S. sanctions, which were first imposed in 2004.

France is also pushing for European Union pressure on Syria after talks between Paris and Damascus late last year failed to end the stalemate in Lebanon, diplomats said.

MORE EU PRESSURE

EU foreign ministers met in Slovenia a day before the Arab summit to discuss Syria. An EU statement said the ministers agreed to improve coordination on Syria and not "reward a lack of cooperation" from Damascus.

With parliamentary elections in Lebanon scheduled for 2009, Syria could be calculating that its allies, who are now in the minority, will emerge with more seats than their opponents, diplomats say.

"The EU is struggling to take a unified stand against Syria and the stalemate in Lebanon might not be that bad for everyone, but can Syria afford more pressure with its economy already reeling?" one diplomat said.

Although Syria is drawing limited Gulf investment, its budget deficit almost doubled last year and falling oil production means that revenue from crude exports is no longer enough to cover fuel import costs.

New U.S. economic sanctions imposed on Syria in February included freezing the assets of Syrian businessman Rami Makhlouf for alleged corruption and links to President Bashar al-Assad.

The United States also deployed warships off Lebanon's coast to show impatience with Damascus and its allies.

Ties between Syria and Lebanon's governing coalition soured after the killing of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. An international investigation team has also implicated Syrian officials in the assassination, one of the reasons for the crisis in Lebanon. Syria denies involvement.

Syrian political commentator Ayman Abdelnour said Syria has realised it could not afford to continue to alienate the West and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia at the same time.

"The other option of keeping up the confrontational stance was obviously a loser," Abdelnour said.